Understanding China and India: Security Implications for the United States and the World

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Will China overthrow the existing order or become a part of it? And what, if anything, can the United States do to maintain its position as China rises? Some observers believe that the American era is coming to an end, as the Western-oriented world order is replaced by one increasingly dominated by the East. The historian Niall Ferguson has written that the bloody twentieth century witnessed "the descent of the West" and "a reorientation of the world" toward the East. Realists go on to note that as China gets more powerful and the United States' position erodes, two things are likely to happen: China will try to use its growing influence to reshape the rules and institutions of the international system to better serve its interests, and other states in the system -- especially the declining hegemon -- will start to see China as a growing security threat.

The result of these developments, they predict, will be tension, distrust, and conflict, the typical features of a power transition.

A World Larger Than Trump’s: China’s

In this view, the drama of China's rise will feature an increasingly powerful China and a declining United States locked in an epic battle over the rules and leadership of the international system. And as the world's largest country emerges not from within but outside the established post-World War II international order, it is a drama that will end with the grand ascendance of China and the onset of an Asian-centered world order.

Kim Jong-un would likely — and legitimately — denounce as unreliable anything the Trump administration put forward. It is no surprise that he excluded any diplomatic discussion with the U. While there are two competing giants in Asia — China and India — it is not simply a matter of military prowess but also of competing attractiveness in a time of changing perspectives and values. As Xi himself intimated at the recent meeting of the National Congress of the Communist Party, China represents a model many hope to emulate to bring their people out of poverty. This begs two questions: a are there correlations between economic and political aspirations?

As Michael D. In the immediate aftermath of the Asian financial crisis, China had not yet attained the level of economic prowess it would reach over the next 20 years, but it helped bail out the distressed southeast Asian economies while the West was content to criticize those countries. Emerging common interests and glimpses of common values would follow new synergies. The economic crisis was probably the most significant economic event of the last decades6 as it destroyed the confidence of non-Western nations in the supremacy of the democratically underpinned free market economy.

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A choice started to emerge for Asian countries between the U. The latter model was maturing in contrast with post ongoing crises such as the Greek meltdown and the Spanish economic downturn. Today, the Chinese alternative meets that demand. One is not talking about a holus-bolus embrace of China. Nobody else is a good enough model any more.

The China model is the way to go. The political underpinning is attractive, particularly for Asian countries facing stiff internal opposition. That is when the Chinese model becomes politically appealing. Yet, ambiguity remains over what model is chosen ultimately between the U. Vietnam is a special case and it is doubtful its strong nationalism will eventually be at peace with China, as evidenced in the incidents at sea between the two countries. While one should avoid over-generalizing, clearly the starting line was skewed given the proximity of China and the sharing of common land and maritime borders for many, the latter with its associated delimitation issues.

Today, China is the first economic partner of all the countries of the region, including India, and a sense of common destiny is confirmed daily by a growing academic, business and political community, a trend which is not well known in the West. That density of relationship in all spheres feeds convergence. The result is that the old model whereby democratic political reform went hand in hand with economic progress no longer holds firm. In Thailand, Malaysia and the Philippines authoritarian regimes have strengthened their hold on power with seeming legitimacy while at the same time clinging increasingly to Beijing.

President Rodrigo Duterte — Mr. Meanwhile, the military rule in Bangkok is in full consonance with the palace. China keeps Cambodia afloat. Malaysia seems to have a one-party system, fighting within itself, with rampant corruption, repression of opposition and control of the media.

The growing confusion of power among the executive, the legislative and the judiciary in these countries makes life easier for China which would like to see it extended to the whole of Southeast Asia. Failures find easy scapegoats. Vietnam resists better in a complex relationship notwithstanding the existence of communist parties in both countries. China has seized upon the general failure of democracy in the region and taken advantage of rejection of the Western model with a savvy, progressive appeasing of reticence. On a broader scale, the concept of a community of destiny underpinned by China has been reinforced beyond Asia by the One Belt One Road initiative.

Through this initiative, which is infused with a mix of idealism and realism, China is attempting to carve out a position of equality for itself with the U. There are regional security issues which cannot be overshadowed by economic integration. While fraying democracies are clearly assets for China, one cannot discount the Indian role in providing an alternative model of a sui generis functioning democracy competing with the Chinese model on both economic and political fronts.

Trump and Modi reaffirmed the strong strategic relationship between India and the U. There is also a trilateral India-Japan-U. One would think that European scenery is part and parcel of the Trump world.

However, his silence on Ukraine23 has not endeared him much to most European leaders. There is a tactical and often strategic congruence between the two countries which owes as much to their domestic political regimes as it has to do with their fundamental rejection of Pax America.

Neither country is interested in joining the liberal democracies of the world which they consider dysfunctional and ineffective.

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The general assumptions are, in sum: 1 control of and access to natural resources are fundamental for national power; 2 energy resources are rare; 3 competition between states for resources is growing; and, 4 conflicts for resources are probable or inevitable Dannreuther : 3. Therefore, countries are motivated by power and always engaged in a fight to increase their capabilities. State behavior is a product of competition. However, this behavior can also be a product of socialization.

In other words, states follow norms because it is advantageous for them, or because these norms become internalized. Furthermore, states are seeking security in anarchy because the main threats come from other states Elman In other words, state behavior is driven by survival and power, and energy resources are elements of maximizing this power Cesnakas Here we adopt the viewpoint of Michael Klare, an expert in the theme of energy security who, in his books and articles, argues on behalf of state competition for access to and control of energy resources, including sources of renewable energy.

However, this aggressive competition can be qualified by cooperative strategies betwen states, also discussed by the authors.


2. The phenomenal growth of China and India

In light of the declarations from the memebers of the U. From the systemic perspective, as put forth by Giovanni Arrighi 1 and Immanuel Wallerstein, 2 the current situation of the capitalist world economy is marked by the slow hegemonic decline of the United States. It is in this scenario that the rise of East Asia and of China, in particular should be understood as more and more central to the process of capital accumulation.

Thus, the incorporation and development of renewable energy sources appear the most relevant for China as an important indicator of its rise and, at the same time, one of the elements that can empirically prove the argument, of these two aforementioned authors, about the United States. These brief assertions are the theoretical basis of this article that intends to show and explain the difference in intensity between China and the United States in the incorporation of renewable energy. This period also provides statistics from the following data sources: official documents from the Chinese and U.

These are the sources of the data presented throughout this article. The energy policies and energy consumption of China and the United States, as well as their respective energy landscapes, are presented in order to meet the aforementioned primary objective of this article. The first section presents the importance of energy for China, the United States and the international system through the use of information from official organizations and statistical data from which are fundamental for the development of the general arguement throughout the text.

For India and the United States, 2+2 equals more - The Economic Times

The text also offers a reflection of the energy security theme and renewable energy, which can be an element to maintain power the United States or seek power China. The importance of energy for China, the United States and the international system. Energy is power. From a political, economic and environmental viewpoint, energy security is one of the most important issues faced by all countries in the world. Besides this, energy is an important aspect to be able to understand competition in the international system.

Considering the competition between states, energy is a crucial factor in the distribution of world power. Therefore, those countries with the most control of energy resources have the biggest power advantage in the international system Kerr There are various degrees of energy security with differing consequences for countries. On a much larger scale, countries can be affected militarily and economically.

Today, energy security is an important political issue due to the rapid industrialization of the world, growing populations, high levels of consumption and a significant dependence on non-renewable fossil fuels. Major powers are going to great lengths to establish and guarantee their energy supplies.

China is still considered a developing country. Just as China and the United States have long competed for fossil fuel resources, these two great powers are competing to incorporate renewable energy sources to diversify their respective energy security matrices. This competition between states is intensified by the decline of U.

Both China and the United States are turning toward the incorporation of renewable energy. Additionally, coal is a non-renewable resource that is estimated to be depleted by mid-century. In terms of energy security, China does not have a choice.

It must incorporate alternative sources into its energy matrix. However, China has sufficient renewable natural resources specifically wind and sun to potentially meet its future energy demands. Meanwhile, the United States is in the midst of a natural gas boom as a result of its success in shale extraction, which could supply the country with energy for millions of years. It is acknowledged here that there are many factors that contribute to the incorporation of renewable energy, such as economic gains new jobs associated with the development of renewable resources and their export potential ; environmental degradation pollution and CO2 emissions resulting from the use of fossil fuels ; depletion of non-renewable resources remaining known sources, such as oil, will be unable to meet future energy demands ; and political motivations desires of governments to globally lead clean energy movements , among others.

It is also important to mention the relationship between these two countries, the significant implications for global energy, as well as the renewable energy divergence between China and the United States. They share common energy challenges, but still do not cooperate significantly in addressing energy issues.

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